Schedule strength of remaining Premier League fixtures

Now we are very close to the end of the Premier League season, I thought I’d try to compare the difficulty of each team’s remaining Premier League fixtures. To do this I used a very simple method to work out how much easier or harder than average each team’s opponents are. Skip to the graph if you aren’t interested in the working out.

First I calculated the average points taken against each team so far, separated into home and away fixtures.

Then I took each team’s remaining fixtures and summed the point values taken from the first calculation. I then averaged this for each team. Finally I worked out the average points from all fixtures and took this away from the team level totals.

So this leaves me with a value that represents how much easier (positive values) or harder (negative values) a team’s fixtures are in points per fixture.

Anyway, after that rather rambling explanation, here are the results:

schedule_strength_premier_league

The numbers should give Liverpool fans title hopes a boost. As it turns out they have the easiest fixtures remaining of all 20 Permier League teams. City on the other hand can look forward to harder than average games. Liverpool’s opponents give up more than 0.6 points per game more than City’s.

At the other end of the table both Brighton and Cardiff have a tough set of games remaining, with Chris Hughton’s side facing the second hardest run in. Burnley will be very pleased they have pulled away in recent weeks, while Southampton look like should be safe.

As far as the race for third and fourth is concerned, there isn’t so much between them. Chelsea have the worst schedule, Tottenham’s is about average, while United and Arsenal have a fairly easy finish to the season.

 

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